The Heat Wave Is Coming

The Heat Wave Is Coming

Welcome to another heat wave. Triple-digit temperatures on tap for Southern California, with a ton of potential for the big storms that come with them. For instance, there’s the potential for a large one late next week, before the sun goes away. Also, there’s a chance for more than one.

That gives forecasters plenty of reason to be concerned. But here’s what we know is likely. There’s a long way to go before we’re officially in the “danger” phase of the “heat wave” cycle. That’s what we call a heat wave with a period of at least seven days. And this one is far from “over” yet.

There’s plenty of data out there that shows that heat waves can be deadly, especially in the elderly and very young, and even when combined with other factors like rain. But until the weather models get it wrong — and they will eventually — I’ll stick to telling you that we’re in for one hell of a heat wave soon. And if you want to know why, let’s have a look at what the model-projected temperatures in California will be next week…

The modelers have been saying that next week, we’re very likely to see a 30+ degree heat wave in Southern California, with temperatures in the 90s or high 100s, followed by rain, and then more hot weather.

The odds are about 50-50, according to the S.P.A.P. — our best forecast for Tuesday, Sept. 29, based on the best computer models.

That doesn’t mean we’ll get it there, though. We’re still in the first stage of this heat wave — the model-projected heat wave period of at least seven days. That’s when these storms do

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